Issue 97 | First Quarter 2025

We remain quite optimistic for 2025 and anticipate rapid implementation of the Trump Agenda, as it is rare that a President with aggressive new policies suffers a slump in their first year. The consensus is for faster moderation of both growth and inflation, but with wider bands on forecasts for both.

Read The Forecast

Subscribe to the Forecast

Receive The Smithfield Forecast in your inbox each quarter. The newsletter contains financial and investment news along with book reviews and other interesting articles written by our staff and customers.

Receive by Email Receive by Post Mail

First Name*

Last Name*

Email*

Address*

Address 2

City*

State*

Zip Code*

Submit

Previous Issues

Issue 96 | Fourth Quarter 2024

The outlook for 2025 has always been problematic due to the uncertainty caused by upcoming elections – not only for the President, but for the balance of Congress as well. The first order of business regardless of who is in power is dealing with the many tax and subsidy programs that sunset as the result of earlier budget shenanigans.

Read The Forecast

Issue 95 | Third Quarter 2024

As we pass mid-year, the US economy is beginning to show signs of stress, because inflation remains higher than hoped, the Federal Reserve remains effectively on hold, and the approaching election leaves fiscal policy uncertain.

Read The Forecast

Issue 94 | Second Quarter 2024

The first quarter of 2024 has seen higher inflation, especially in the super-core (services excluding energy and rent), which has raised concerns about a wage-price spiral. Despite this, hourly earnings have remained stable due to strong immigration inflows, which have loosened labor markets, particularly for lower-level jobs. Economic growth has slowed compared to the second half of 2023, but the consensus forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is around 2.0%. The positive outlook is supported by sound corporate profit margins, rising stock prices, and narrowing credit spreads, which have provided liquidity similar to easing by the Federal Reserve. The election in 2024 will have economic consequences, depending on the outcome and resulting policy changes. Uncertainty surrounding the election has made CEOs more cautious. Manufacturing cycles typically last 18-24 months, and this cycle's upswing is just beginning. Nationalism could slow down its potential upside. Multinationals are making tough decisions about supply chain development, leading to slower supply growth.

Read The Forecast

Issue 97 | First Quarter 2025

Subscribe to the Forecast

Previous Issues

Issue 96 | Fourth Quarter 2024

Issue 95 | Third Quarter 2024

Issue 94 | Second Quarter 2024

Success!