Issue 94 | Second Quarter 2024
The first quarter of 2024 has seen higher inflation, especially in the super-core (services excluding
energy and rent), which has raised concerns about a wage-price spiral. Despite this, hourly earnings
have remained stable due to strong immigration inflows, which have loosened labor markets,
particularly for lower-level jobs. Economic growth has slowed compared to the second half of 2023, but
the consensus forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is around 2.0%. The positive outlook is supported by
sound corporate profit margins, rising stock prices, and narrowing credit spreads, which have provided
liquidity similar to easing by the Federal Reserve. The election in 2024 will have economic
consequences, depending on the outcome and resulting policy changes. Uncertainty surrounding the
election has made CEOs more cautious. Manufacturing cycles typically last 18-24 months, and this
cycle's upswing is just beginning. Nationalism could slow down its potential upside. Multinationals are
making tough decisions about supply chain development, leading to slower supply growth.
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